It’s a Fantasy to Expect New Graduates to Become Long-Term “One-Club Men”
Read the original article (in Japanese):
Why the Promising April New Hire Disappears in May: The Price Paid by “Hands-Off” ManagersAt the entrance ceremony, the new employee’s eyes sparkled more than anyone else’s. During the interview, they were overflowing with motivation. Yet after Golden Week, they submit a resignation through a resignation agency service. The manager loses the new hire without ever having a single conversation with them. This is the reality of today’s new graduate hires.According to data from the resignation agency service “Momuri,” the number of new graduates using the service in April 2025 reached 487 — roughly double the previous year. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reports that 33.8% of university graduates leave within three years of joining a company, with over 10% leaving in their first year alone.To stop repeating the shock of “I never thought that employee would quit,” we must first let go of the phrase “it’s the young people’s problem.” The structure of employment has already changed significantly from the past. This discussion begins by re-examining that reality.
Chapter 1: The Day “Endure for Three Years” Became a FantasyThe saying “just endure for the first three years” has already collapsed. A Job Total Research survey found that 94.3% of working adults feel “the psychological barrier to quitting has decreased.” With resignation agency services, one can quit without saying a single word to their boss.A MyNavi survey shows that about 70% of first-year employees already have intentions to change jobs. Compounding this is the acceleration of comparison through SNS. On X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram, posts like “I was given a project in my first month” or “My salary increased” appear daily. Whether real or slightly exaggerated, it doesn’t matter.A Persol Research Institute survey found that 76.6% of new employees experience “reality shock” after joining. When this overlaps with the feeling on SNS that “I’m the only one losing out,” young people’s hearts waver surprisingly quickly.The era when “endure for three years” worked was one with limited information and few options. Labeling the attitude of “if it doesn’t fit, look for the next opportunity immediately” as “lack of perseverance” is simply a misreading of the times.
Chapter 2: Neither “Hands-Off” Nor “Over-Control” WorksWhen trying to prevent new hires from quitting, managers often fall into two failures: excessive hands-off management or over-involvement (containment).Many managers think, “Young people today dislike interference, so I should respect their autonomy,” and deliberately keep their distance. However, what new hires truly dislike is not “interference” but “monitoring” and “neglect.” They receive no guidance, don’t know what to do, yet feel they are not trusted. This leaves them isolated with no sense of growth.On the other hand, over-control means trying to “mold” them into the company. Imposing company-specific rules without reason or forcing job rotations under the explanation “it’s necessary to see the whole picture” are classic examples. To today’s young people, this sends a clear signal: “My career is not being respected.”What they seek is the middle ground: intentional but non-coercive growth support. Whether managers can practice supportive involvement — neither neglect nor micromanagement — makes a huge difference in retention rates.
Chapter 3: Portable Skills Over Promotion — The Career View of Today’s Young PeopleTo understand modern young people’s career perspective, we must recognize that the meaning of “generalist” has changed.In the past, a generalist in a large company meant “someone who can work anywhere within the company.” Today, young people seek a generalist who possesses portable skills — skills that are valuable inside and outside the company, across industries and society.Their management aspirations are also low (only about 16.7% want to become managers in their current company). Rather than climbing the internal hierarchy, they prioritize job content and personal market value. They already understand that career advancement can be achieved through job changes.
Chapter 4: Giving Up on the One-Club ManThere is an interesting contradiction here. Among job-seeking students, the desire for lifetime employment remains around 41% for liberal arts and 43% for science graduates. Yet among first- to third-year employees, about 70% say they eventually want to quit.This is not a contradiction. Young people are drifting between hope and anxiety. Deep down, they want stable lifetime employment if possible. But seeing middle-aged and senior workers facing layoffs (over 10,000 early/voluntary retirement offers at listed companies in 2025, many from profitable firms) and feeling anxiety about AI automating jobs (68% of Gen Z), they can no longer believe “joining a big company means security.”In sports, the term “one-club man” (a player who stays with one club for their entire career) is fading. Since the 1995 Bosman ruling increased player mobility, moving clubs for better pay, conditions, and playing opportunities has become a rational choice.Young people’s true desire is stability. Yet when facing reality, building a “self that works anywhere” is the most rational strategy.
Chapter 5: Hand Over the “Three-Element Equivalence Principle” as a Universal RuleWhat should managers teach new hires? The “Three-Element Equivalence Principle” from the original article is highly effective.Every job consists of three inseparable elements:
Chapter 6: Abandon the “Long-Term Talent” Fantasy and Shift to a Growth-Sharing MindsetA major mindset shift is required for today’s managers: “Immediately quitting” and “quitting after 5 or 10 years” have completely different meanings.The former means losing talent before any return on investment. Therefore, preventing very early departures requires full effort. However, quitting after 5 or 10 years is a different story. Only 38.1% of Gen Z intend to stay with one company long-term.Expecting new graduates to be “long-term talent” is already a fantasy. Of course, exceptions exist — but designing the entire organization around those rare exceptions is unrealistic.The old mindset → New mindset
Long tenure = proof of loyalty → Maximum mutual contribution during the period of employment
Quitting = betrayal → Sending off good alumni is success
Training = investment for future returns → Training = tool to maximize performance while employed
Skills = to be used only inside the company → Skills = portable skills we develop together“Containment” and “indoctrination” no longer work. Organizations that adopt the stance of “Let’s polish your portable skills here and grow together while you’re with us” earn greater trust from young people. Ironically, this approach increases the chance of creating modern “one-club men.”
Final Chapter: What Emerges When You Let Go of the “Betrayal” EmotionFinally, one emotion must be addressed.“After all the effort I put into developing them, they betrayed me.”Many managers have thought this at some point. Yet this very feeling is the biggest factor driving young people away.When you release it, everything changes. “I developed them” becomes “We grew together.” “Betrayal” becomes “We gained valuable experience nurturing talent.”When young people sense this attitude, genuine trust is born.In organizations built on trust, surprising things happen: people who were going to leave stay. Alumni return as customers. Good word-of-mouth spreads, attracting excellent new talent. And occasionally, exceptional “modern one-club men” emerge.The important point is not to design the entire organization expecting those rare exceptions. A growth-sharing mindset must become the natural culture of the organization. There is no time to hesitate — we must start now.A manager’s job is not to bind people. It is to create a place where people can work and genuinely grow. And such a place is one where people naturally want to stay.
Chapter 1: The Day “Endure for Three Years” Became a FantasyThe saying “just endure for the first three years” has already collapsed. A Job Total Research survey found that 94.3% of working adults feel “the psychological barrier to quitting has decreased.” With resignation agency services, one can quit without saying a single word to their boss.A MyNavi survey shows that about 70% of first-year employees already have intentions to change jobs. Compounding this is the acceleration of comparison through SNS. On X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram, posts like “I was given a project in my first month” or “My salary increased” appear daily. Whether real or slightly exaggerated, it doesn’t matter.A Persol Research Institute survey found that 76.6% of new employees experience “reality shock” after joining. When this overlaps with the feeling on SNS that “I’m the only one losing out,” young people’s hearts waver surprisingly quickly.The era when “endure for three years” worked was one with limited information and few options. Labeling the attitude of “if it doesn’t fit, look for the next opportunity immediately” as “lack of perseverance” is simply a misreading of the times.
Chapter 2: Neither “Hands-Off” Nor “Over-Control” WorksWhen trying to prevent new hires from quitting, managers often fall into two failures: excessive hands-off management or over-involvement (containment).Many managers think, “Young people today dislike interference, so I should respect their autonomy,” and deliberately keep their distance. However, what new hires truly dislike is not “interference” but “monitoring” and “neglect.” They receive no guidance, don’t know what to do, yet feel they are not trusted. This leaves them isolated with no sense of growth.On the other hand, over-control means trying to “mold” them into the company. Imposing company-specific rules without reason or forcing job rotations under the explanation “it’s necessary to see the whole picture” are classic examples. To today’s young people, this sends a clear signal: “My career is not being respected.”What they seek is the middle ground: intentional but non-coercive growth support. Whether managers can practice supportive involvement — neither neglect nor micromanagement — makes a huge difference in retention rates.
Chapter 3: Portable Skills Over Promotion — The Career View of Today’s Young PeopleTo understand modern young people’s career perspective, we must recognize that the meaning of “generalist” has changed.In the past, a generalist in a large company meant “someone who can work anywhere within the company.” Today, young people seek a generalist who possesses portable skills — skills that are valuable inside and outside the company, across industries and society.Their management aspirations are also low (only about 16.7% want to become managers in their current company). Rather than climbing the internal hierarchy, they prioritize job content and personal market value. They already understand that career advancement can be achieved through job changes.
Chapter 4: Giving Up on the One-Club ManThere is an interesting contradiction here. Among job-seeking students, the desire for lifetime employment remains around 41% for liberal arts and 43% for science graduates. Yet among first- to third-year employees, about 70% say they eventually want to quit.This is not a contradiction. Young people are drifting between hope and anxiety. Deep down, they want stable lifetime employment if possible. But seeing middle-aged and senior workers facing layoffs (over 10,000 early/voluntary retirement offers at listed companies in 2025, many from profitable firms) and feeling anxiety about AI automating jobs (68% of Gen Z), they can no longer believe “joining a big company means security.”In sports, the term “one-club man” (a player who stays with one club for their entire career) is fading. Since the 1995 Bosman ruling increased player mobility, moving clubs for better pay, conditions, and playing opportunities has become a rational choice.Young people’s true desire is stability. Yet when facing reality, building a “self that works anywhere” is the most rational strategy.
Chapter 5: Hand Over the “Three-Element Equivalence Principle” as a Universal RuleWhat should managers teach new hires? The “Three-Element Equivalence Principle” from the original article is highly effective.Every job consists of three inseparable elements:
- Responsibility — Completing the assigned duties
- Authority — The right to consult seniors or managers when needed to fulfill those duties
- Obligation — Reporting and explaining work progress
Chapter 6: Abandon the “Long-Term Talent” Fantasy and Shift to a Growth-Sharing MindsetA major mindset shift is required for today’s managers: “Immediately quitting” and “quitting after 5 or 10 years” have completely different meanings.The former means losing talent before any return on investment. Therefore, preventing very early departures requires full effort. However, quitting after 5 or 10 years is a different story. Only 38.1% of Gen Z intend to stay with one company long-term.Expecting new graduates to be “long-term talent” is already a fantasy. Of course, exceptions exist — but designing the entire organization around those rare exceptions is unrealistic.The old mindset → New mindset
Long tenure = proof of loyalty → Maximum mutual contribution during the period of employment
Quitting = betrayal → Sending off good alumni is success
Training = investment for future returns → Training = tool to maximize performance while employed
Skills = to be used only inside the company → Skills = portable skills we develop together“Containment” and “indoctrination” no longer work. Organizations that adopt the stance of “Let’s polish your portable skills here and grow together while you’re with us” earn greater trust from young people. Ironically, this approach increases the chance of creating modern “one-club men.”
Final Chapter: What Emerges When You Let Go of the “Betrayal” EmotionFinally, one emotion must be addressed.“After all the effort I put into developing them, they betrayed me.”Many managers have thought this at some point. Yet this very feeling is the biggest factor driving young people away.When you release it, everything changes. “I developed them” becomes “We grew together.” “Betrayal” becomes “We gained valuable experience nurturing talent.”When young people sense this attitude, genuine trust is born.In organizations built on trust, surprising things happen: people who were going to leave stay. Alumni return as customers. Good word-of-mouth spreads, attracting excellent new talent. And occasionally, exceptional “modern one-club men” emerge.The important point is not to design the entire organization expecting those rare exceptions. A growth-sharing mindset must become the natural culture of the organization. There is no time to hesitate — we must start now.A manager’s job is not to bind people. It is to create a place where people can work and genuinely grow. And such a place is one where people naturally want to stay.
Read in Japanese ↓（For Japanese learners!）↓
Z世代に長期人材＝「ワン・クラブ・マン」は期待できない（2026.4.9）
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